Luck vs Statistical Odds

It's NBA playoff time, and my Suns are still alive, so let’s use a basketball analogy..

Game 7, and you’re up 2 with 5 seconds left, with the other team inbounding the ball near midcourt.

They are looking to feed a pure shooter for a 3-pt shot. This shooter averages 42% from deep, which means he probably shoots 65% when wide open and 20% when off-balance with a hand in his face.

This means that even if your defense is perfect and he forces up a terrible shot, it might go in (20%, 1 out of 5 times). And if your defense is terrible and he ends up wide open, he still might miss.

But this isn’t a case where you get to run the scenario several times let to the percentages play out - this is the last shot of the game; it's either going in the basket or it's not.

Over time, play after play and game after game, you work hard to improve your defense and get the shooter's number closer to 20%. That's how you win games - by forcing the other team to miss more shots and make fewer shots. (It's also why there are sayings like "the harder you work the luckier you get" and “luck favors the prepared.”)

But in this one game, on this one shot.. luck plays a role. You have to acknowledge and accept that fact.

Our goal will be to work hard and improve our game, knowing we'll succeed more often than not. And when luck does show its head - whether good or bad - we'll accept it and move on.

- Chris Butterworth